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[Chemical industry] peep of inflection point of times of polycrystalline silicon
From;    Author:Stand originally

Regard the key of component of most smooth hot season as raw material, the times of sudden huge profits of polycrystalline silicon appears first inflection point evidence. Company of finance and economics of basis new energy resources (New Energy Finance) is newest issuance silicon material and index of silicon chip price show, already signed a contract at present price of polycrystalline silicon agreement fell on average 2009 amount to 43% . This means smooth hot season to make cost hopeful reduce, of the bottleneck of raw material of smooth hot season strand also hopeful alleviation.

Wu Xiaoyu of analyst of company of finance and economics of new energy resources tells Shanghai negotiable securities the newspaper, silicon of solar energy class expects and the price of silicon chip is Guang Fuxin a crucial factor in economy of the sources of energy, be in short supply and produce of this kind of crucial raw material in recent years can bottleneck already made the cost empty of product of package of smooth hot season tall 37% . Nevertheless, the Guang Fuxin installed capacity of whole world limits still went up greatly 2007 56% , the growth this year predicts to will still exceed 50% .

Recently, this company foundation is domestic and international silicon chip of 10 silicon makings bought the home and the confidential data that sell the home to make report of makings of a silicon and index of silicon chip price, this index reflected the merchandise on hand that bought a contract with the silicon chip that signed first half of the year 2008 and silicon makings 2007 and data of forward contract price. These contracts were enclothed be equivalent to producible the polycrystalline silicon of the silicon chip that arranges 1.7GW batteries package and 6GW batteries component.

This index shows, among the will offer money 2009 polycrystalline silicon that already signed the price relatively 2008 for goods intermediate price fell 43% ; Arrive from 2008 between 2015, forward contract price is in annual polycrystalline silicon drop, 2013 will under every kilograms of 67 dollars, more current intermediate price fell full 67% . Nevertheless, this one price still prep above arrived 2002 2004 the historical low of polycrystalline silicon spot market.

On the other hand, the index shows, the intermediate price of polycrystalline silicon silicon chip still can maintain current level 2009, the supply that makes clear silicon chip grows and grow without the supply that resembles polycrystalline silicon raw material so fast. In coming 5 years, silicon chip is long-dated intermediate price will drop 41% , under photograph comparing, the polycrystalline silicon of the corresponding period is long-dated price fell among the contract 67% , this limit profit of indication future will make a domain make a domain transfer to silicon chip from polycrystalline silicon.

This index still shows, begin from 2011, valence just meets silicon chip among forward contract under 6 dollars every (1.62 dollars every tile) , the cost that means smooth hot season to generate electricity won't appear to drop considerably in nearly two years.
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