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[Steely] forecast: Price of rolled steel of near future China can rise considera
From;    Author:Stand originally

3 be quantity of import of rolled steel, base increase quickened steel price to drop. Rise as perch of price of steel products of early days home, rolled steel, base imports an amount to also increase somewhat. According to statistic, 1-7 month, accumulative total of rolled steel, base imports a quantity to be 9.83 million tons, although drop compared to the same period 4% , annulus comparing rises 13.28% ; Accumulative total of 1-7 month rolled steel, base exports a quantity to be 34.51 million tons, drop compared to the same period 23.3% , fall be more than an entrance nearly 20 percent. Number of feed inlet of rolled steel, billet measures increase, increased the supply pressure of home market.

4 it is psychology anticipates impacts of pair of rolled steel price are clear. The market anticipates aid already drop to also be aided go up. The market anticipates steel price is bullish, the user is willing much goods in stock, agency also is met much replenish onr's stock, the market buys demand to be magnified, can be more than so drive rolled steel actual demand, quickly to rise in price. Came since second half of the year 2007 this year first half of the year, rolled steel price rises all the way, have the market base that demand exceeds supply, also have the effect that market psychology expects, because price of this rolled steel rises in this,a few bubble appeared more or less in the process. When the market is full of the psychology that rise to anticipate, increasing industry profit at the same time, also bring a variety of hidden trouble. Appear to be begged for be more than when the market, when steel price be expected to fall, agency and downstream user may reduce inventory even not replenish onr's stock. Be in especially the market from inside seeking a course for be more than for should not changing direction, meeting generation is aided certainly drop action, its are bigger to the power of the market. Early days, we had been enjoyed anticipate rise in price bring aid go up the profit that action brings, should be being faced now is to aid drop action brings a bitter pill to swallow.

The 5 adjustment that are steelworks producer price promoted market price style drop. Appear to be begged for be more than when the market, the price is common when be expected to fall, downstream user includes trafficker inevitable meeting orders goods the inventory of oneself enterprise and rolled steel compress lowest, so steelworks inventory is increased necessarily, too big steelworks stock makes rolled steel produce manufacturer to cheapen again conversely shipment, those who create value of rolled steel market drop.

6 it is domestic steel products production and trade company capital compare insecurity generally, what produce to maintain is successional, to alleviate capital pressure, take abnormal sale kind, cause market price case to fluctuate. And trafficker is adopted dive considerably, the method such as poor ” fills after forcing steelworks to adopt “ to protect a value to sell ” , “ to make work to trafficker, aggravate of market price case drop further, the market competition order with disturbed normal.
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